Future Tropical Storm Helene: A Hurricane Threat to Florida and the Gulf Coast; Alerts Issued for Florida Keys
Key Points:
- A tropical storm watch is currently in effect for the Lower Florida Keys.
- Tropical Storm Helene is anticipated to form in the western Caribbean Sea.
- The storm is likely to strengthen into a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday.
- Forecast models predict a potential landfall as a hurricane in Florida or the northern Gulf Coast on Thursday.
- The storm could bring dangerous storm surge, strong winds, and heavy rainfall, with impacts extending well inland into the southern U.S. through Friday.
Tropical Storm Helene is set to develop in the western Caribbean Sea, with expectations to become a significant hurricane before making landfall in Florida or the northern Gulf Coast later this week. Residents along the U.S. Gulf Coast, from Louisiana to Florida, should closely monitor this evolving situation and ensure their hurricane preparedness plans are ready.
Alerts Issued:
- A tropical storm watch has been issued for the Lower Florida Keys, including Key West and Big Pine Key.
- A hurricane watch and tropical storm warning are in effect for parts of Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula, from just west of Cancún to Tulum, including Cozumel, and for western Cuba, generally west of Havana.
- These alerts indicate that tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible in these regions within the next 36 to 48 hours.
Current Status: A broad area of low pressure is present in the western Caribbean Sea, with thunderstorms becoming increasingly organized. This system has been designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, a classification the National Hurricane Center (NHC) uses to issue warnings before a tropical depression or storm forms.
Timeline of Events:
- Monday-Tuesday: A tropical depression or storm could form by late Monday or Tuesday. Once it reaches tropical storm strength, it will be named Tropical Storm Helene. By late Tuesday, Helene may approach Cancún, Cozumel, and western Cuba as either a tropical storm or possibly a Category 1 hurricane, bringing heavy rain, strong winds, and storm surge flooding. Parts of western Cuba may receive over 12 inches of rain.
- Wednesday: Helene is expected to cause lingering effects in Cancún, Cozumel, and western Cuba, particularly early in the day. The storm is then projected to enter the southern Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane, potentially generating high surf and outer rainbands affecting Florida’s Gulf Coast from the Keys to the Panhandle.
- Thursday: Despite some uncertainty, Helene is forecast to make landfall as a major hurricane on Thursday afternoon or evening. While the most likely landfall area is between Florida’s Big Bend and the Panhandle, hurricane impacts (surge, winds, rain) may extend far beyond the center. Some forecast models suggest landfall could occur as far east as Florida’s West Coast or as far west as southeast Louisiana or Mississippi, so everyone along the northern Gulf Coast should remain vigilant for changes.
- Friday: The system is likely to move inland quickly, causing lingering strong winds and localized flooding rain across parts of the Southeast.
Current Storm Status and Projected Path: (The red-shaded area indicates the potential path of the tropical cyclone’s center. It’s essential to note that impacts like heavy rain, high surf, and coastal flooding typically extend beyond the forecast path.)
Potential Strength:
Helene is forecast to reach major hurricane status in the Gulf before landfall due to favorable conditions, including warm, deep waters in the northwest Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. In fact, heat content in the Gulf is at record highs for this time of year, according to Brian McNoldy, a tropical scientist from the University of Miami.
Forecast models also suggest that upper-level winds may favor strengthening rather than shearing and tilting the storm’s circulation, which could allow Helene to reach at least Category 3 intensity in the eastern Gulf of Mexico before making landfall.
Rainfall Potential:
While it is premature to provide specific details on other impacts such as storm surge and winds, Helene is expected to bring heavy rainfall, particularly along and east of its track. The heaviest rain is anticipated from Thursday to Friday in parts of the Southeast, although some heavy rain bands could begin as early as Wednesday. This rainfall may lead to flash flooding, especially where it coincides with storm surge and higher terrain.